Skenari i ekspertëve të Pentagonit: Putini vdes në janar 2027, Rusia nis luftë me NATO-n në vitin 2030

Analysts have modelled a Russian war with NATO following Putin’s death

The American think tank RAND has outlined a hypothetical scenario in which Putin dies in January 2027 and a former FSB general seizes power in Russia.

The new president agrees to a ceasefire in Ukraine, brokered by the US, UK and other European countries.

However, Russia’s objectives remain unchanged, and peace negotiations reach a deadlock. As a result, the war enters a frozen phase.

Domestic discontent grows, prompting the Kremlin to launch hybrid attacks against NATO countries and a disinformation campaign portraying Russian-speaking residents of Eastern Europe as victims of persecution.

In May 2030, Russia instigates unrest in the Estonian city of Narva and subsequently sends troops into the city. NATO responds by invoking its collective defence clause.

Fighting spreads across the Baltic region, Northern Europe and the UK.

In November, Moscow declares the capture of Narva a victory and proposes a ceasefire.

The report contains recommendations for the British government on preparing for war and protecting critical infrastructure.

RAND stresses that this is just one of several possible scenarios.

How likely do you think this scenario is?

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) November 12, 2026